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Bill Ackman's Big Hedge Fund Conference Is Coming Up — Here's How Last Year's Stock Picks Did

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Bill Ackman

Hedge fund titan Bill Ackman, who has been in the spotlight lately for his big Herbalife short, is putting on a hedge fund conference in the coming weeks.

On February 13, Ackman, the CEO of $12 billion Pershing Square Capital Management, and Mark Axelowitz, managing director from UBS Private Wealth Management, will co-host the 2013 Harbor Investment Conference at the JPMorgan Chase Conference Center in Midtown Manhattan.

The annual event brings together some of the industry's top investors to share trade ideas, while raising money for the Boys & Girl's Harbor. 

It's unclear what Ackman will be talking about or what investment pick he might present, but he will be making himself available for a Q&A session with the audience and that could get really interesting.

In addition to Ackman, the other speakers this year include, Andrew Feldstein (BlueMountain Capital), Mick McGuire (Marcato Capital Management), Howard Shainker (Bow Street), Mona Sutphen (Managing Director of UBS AG and former White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy) and David Weinreb (CEO of The Howard Hughes Corporation). 

Business Insider will be there covering the event.  

In the meantime, let's review how last year's investment picks did.  

These ideas were shared on February 2, 2012.  Some were before the closing bell and others were given after the bell that day.  They were all embargoed from the public until after the closing bell on February 3.

For this report, we used data from Yahoo! Finance and tracked the stock's performance from February 3 through January 30, 2013.  

Here's the rundown:

  • Catherine Wood (CIO of Thematic Portfolios at AllianceBernstein): Her Fusion-io (FIO) pick is down 9.8% while her Tesla Motors (TSLA) pick is up 21.45% and her Genomic Health (GHDX) pick is down 4.26%.
  • Stephen Raneri (LionEye Capial): His DST Systems (DST) pick is up 26.16%.
  • Howard Shainker (Bow Street): Rentech (RTK) is up 65.57% and Rentech Nitrogen (RNF) is up 92.64%.
  • William Danoff (Portfolio Manager, Fidelity Contrafund): His Noble Drilling (NBL) pick is up 5.12%.
  • Bill Ackman: His JCPenney (JCP) investment pick is down 49.76%.  His other picks did much better, though.  Ackman recommended buying Howard Hughes (HHC), which is up 40.65%.  He also recommended Justice Holdings, a cash shell company that traded on LSE with the ticker "JUSH." It's now Burger King. The closing price of Justice on Feb. 3, 2012 was $13.89.  Burger King World closed at $17.81 yesterday, so that's up 28.2%.
  • **BONUS** Boaz Weinstein (Saba Capital): He recommended buying the Investment Grade Series 9 10-Year Index CDS (maturing on 12/20/2017), which is the same security the JPMorgan CIO desk was short as part of the "London Whale" trade.  

Now let's do some simple math for a bit. 

Let's say these ten stock picks make up a portfolio.  If we take the stocks and have them all equally weighted, the performance of this portfolio would be approximately 21.59%, according to our calculations. 

For comparison, the S&P is up 13.31% since February 3, 2012.  Meanwhile, the Barclays Long/Short hedge fund index was 6.32% YTD through December 2012.  The January numbers were not available at the time of this report.

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The FTC Has Released A Gigantic Document Dump Showing Angry Customer Complaints About Herbalife

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Herbalife

Through a FOIA request, New York Post's Michelle Celarier has obtained 192 complaints about Herbalife filed with the Federal Trade Commission over the last seven years. 

According to the Post's report, the FTC is probing the multi-level marketing company that sells nutrition products.

Click to see the complaints >

Herbalife has been one of the most controversial stocks lately.   

Bill Ackman, the founder of Pershing Square, has publicly said he's shorting more than 20 million shares of the MLM.  Ackman gave a presentation in December saying that he believes the company is a "pyramid scheme" and has a price target of zero. 

Herbalife responded Ackman's thesis calling it a "malicious attack" and accused him of using "outdated" and "inaccurate information."

After Ackman publicly declared his short, hedge fund heavyweight Daniel Loeb, the founder of Third Point LLC, took out a 8.24% stake in the company on the long side.  Some other fund managers have also gone long Herbalife after disagreeing with Ackman's short case.

Right now, it looks like Ackman is winning the hedge fund war.

Herbalife's stock is getting hammered today on the FTC news.  The stock was last trading down more than 5.9%, well below the pre-Ackman short levels. 

We combed through the 729 pages of complaints available on the FTC's website, which have been largely redacted, and have included some of them in the slides that follow. 

That being said, a lot of the customer complaints were requesting a refund of the $9.95 they paid for an introductory DVD into the company, while others complained about receiving spam emails and unwanted telephone calls.

BELGIUM CONSUMER: everyone knows that...herbalife like products and way of business are a pyramid [illegal] scheme. why [don't] you end it?



BRISTOL, CT CONSUMER: 'There was so much deceit...I made zero dollars as a 'Supervisor' I made no money with Herbalife.'



CHESAPEAKE, VA CONSUMER: 'everything about Herbalife from prescreening and watching initial videos to sign up, through the training process have been nothing but a scam...'

146 of 192 



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Herbalife Is Demanding A Correction From The New York Post After A Report About An FTC Probe That Sent Shares Diving (HLF)

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herbalife

Herbalife, a multi-level marketing company that sells nutrition products, is demanding the New York Post to issue a correction after a report that it's being investigated by the Federal Trade Commission

Here's the release from Herbalife: 

Los Angeles, CA – February 4, 2013  Herbalife (NYSE: HLF) today issued the following statement following misleading and inaccurate information in the marketplace this morning:

Other than the voluntary dialogue with regulators, which we communicated on our January investor day, we are unaware of any other regulatory interest and/or investigation. We are demanding a correction from the NY Post.

Since its founding in 1980, Herbalife has positively impacted the lives and health of consumers. For a direct selling company of our size, we have had a relatively low number of complaints to the FTC. However, we take every one of them seriously and stand by our record of doing right by our distributors and all consumers of our products.

The New York Post's Michelle Celarier obtained 192 complaints about Herbalife filed with the FTC over the last seven years. 

According to the Post's report, the FTC is probing Herbalife.  Shares of Herbalife were lower on that news.  

The stock was last trading down 3.99% at $33.67, well below the pre-Bill Ackman short levels. The stock hit a low today of $30.84.

Ackman's Pershing Square Capital Management is shorting more than 20 million shares of Herbalife and has a price target of $0.

SEE: The FTC Has Released A Gigantic Document Dump Showing Angry Customer Complaints >

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ZeroHedge Speculates That Carl Icahn May Be Trying To Crush Bill Ackman With JCPenney

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Ackman Icahn

Bondholders represented by law firm of Brown Rudnick sent JCPenney a notice of default last week claiming the retailer defaulted on bonds due in 2037.

JCPenney then filed a lawsuit in Delaware to block that claim saying in a statement that it's "completely without merit."

Zero Hedge has an interesting piece speculating that the bondholders may be Carl Ichan trying to crush Bill Ackman. 

Of course, this is just speculation.  It hasn't been confirmed. 

Icahn and Ackman have been rivals for a decade now and on January 25th, the two hedge fund titans brawled on CNBC.  The 76 year-old billionaire investor was hurling brutal insults at Ackman during the segment calling him a "crybaby in the schoolyard." 

A few days later, JCPenney, which Bill Ackman is the largest shareholder of, received the received a Notice of Default, Zero Hedge points out. Zero Hedge also notes that Icahn has been one of Brown Rudnick's big clients in the past. 

Read the full Zero Hedge post here >

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Bill Ackman's Enemies Want To Give Him The 'Short Squeeze' — Here's Why He'll Survive

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Bill Ackman

NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - For now, William Ackman is getting the better of Carl Icahn in a well-publicized grudge match between the billionaire investors over Herbalife Ltd .

Shares of the nutritional supplement company are down 20 percent since the hedge fund managers duked it out by telephone on cable television station CNBC on Jan 25., exchanging barbs about Ackman's bold $1 billion bet that Herbalife is an unsustainable pyramid scheme destined to collapse.

But a big concern for investors in Ackman's $12 billion Pershing Square Capital Management is whether Icahn, who boldly predicted Ackman will get caught in the "mother of all short squeezes," will have the last laugh in this battle of hedge fund titans.

A short squeeze is a trading scenario that occurs from time to time in heavily shorted stocks, when bearish traders are forced to buy shares to avoid big losses - something that ends up pushing the stock only higher.

A short squeeze could be particularly punishing for Ackman's Pershing Square, which has shorted some 20 million shares of Herbalife. That accounts for roughly 56 percent of the shares sold short, according to Jan. 15 data released by Nasdaq.

Short squeezes can quickly wash out bearish traders with weak stomachs who used a loan to borrow shares from a broker. And in a worst case scenario the losses can be unlimited if a stock keeps rising and a trader waits too long to buy shares to close out the short position.

But Pershing Square may be better positioned than other short sellers in Herbalife. A person familiar with the hedge fund said Pershing Square largely used cash on hand to build its short position last year.

Paul Irvine, a finance professor at the University of Georgia who has done research on short squeezes, said because Ackman did not use borrowed money, he does not face the additional risk of a margin call and is less likely to be forced out of his position.

Ackman then may be better able to stand by his conviction that Herbalife is a pyramid scheme that generates most of its revenues from sales to its network of distributors and not from outside consumers. But it could take years for his view to pan out, if ever, setting the stage for a protracted battle with Herbalife's more bullish investors.

Herbalife has denied Ackman's claim it is pyramid scheme and said the company is "financially strong and successful" and operates in 88 markets around the world after 32 years in business.

Pershing Square already weathered an initial short squeeze in Herbalife that began a week after Ackman went public with his criticisms of the company on Dec. 20. That first squeeze began before the Jan. 9 disclosure by Daniel Loeb's Third Point hedge fund that it had amassed an 8 percent equity stake in Herbalife.

Loeb has told his investors Herbalife is a strong financial performer that could see its stock trade up to $55 to $68 a share.

Icahn won't confirm whether he owns Herbalife shares but the Wall Street Journal reported he acquired a small position around the same time as Loeb.

"Less than a week after Ackman's announcement on December 20th, we saw a sharp increase in traders covering their short positions, seemingly resulting in a squeeze," said Karl Loomes, market analyst at SunGard's Astec Analytics, a provider of data on securities lending.

Shares of Herbalife, which initially plunged 40 percent after Ackman's presentation, surged 76 percent during the height of that initial short squeeze, which took place approximately from December 24 to January 15.

During the period Herbalife shares were roaring back from $26.06 to $46.19, the cost of borrowing Herbalife shares from a broker surged from 1 percent to a peak of over 7 percent on an annualized basis, according to data from Astec Analytics.

Since the squeeze ended, the cost of borrowing Herbalife shares has fallen to around 2 percent annually.

Ackman's Pershing Square, according to sources familiar with the fund, has not covered any of its short positions in Herbalife. It ended January up roughly 4 percent, compared to a roughly 1.74 percent gain for the average hedge fund, according to a Bank of America/Merrill Lynch research analyst.

It's not known at what price Ackman began shorting shares of Herbalife but he has said he began doing so last May when the stock was trading around $45 a share. The stock closed trading on Tuesday at $35.75 a share.

Pershing Square's better than average performance came mainly from the performance of other stocks in its portfolio such as Canadian Pacific Railway and Procter & Gamble , which both rose sharply in January.

Meanwhile, Loeb's flagship Third Point Offshore fund was up 4.8 percent in January.

Still, there are some indications that another short squeeze could be in the offing, which raises the question of just how much pain and volatility Ackman and his investors can withstand.

Thomson Reuters StarMine compiles an indicator using a stock's volatility over the past 3 and 12 months and the level of short interest to predict the likelihood of a short squeeze over the next 30 days. On a scale of 1 to 100, with 100 meaning a short squeeze is very likely, Herbalife scores a 95.

Another way in which Ackman's big short could go against him is if Herbalife bought back a number of its outstanding shares, or if another company decided to make an offer for Herbalife.

"Companies often increase share repurchases when short selling increases," said Edward Swanson, a professor at the Mays Business School at Texas A&M University.

Herbalife already did exactly that when it increased a share buyback program in May after short-seller David Einhorn questioned the company's disclosures about its network of distributors [ID: nL4E8G37GU].

Einhorn recently told his Greenlight Capital investors he is no longer short the stock. It's not known when he began shorting the company's shares. (Reporting By Peter Rudegeair and Svea Herbst-Bayliss; Editing by Matthew Goldstein and Claudia Parsons)

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BILL ACKMAN: Dear Herbalife, Please Answer These 284 Questions

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bill ackman

Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, the founder of $12 billion Pershing Square Capital Management, has just released 38 pages of questions for Herbalife. There are 284 questions in total.

Ackman, who believes Herbalife is a pyramid scheme, is shorting more than 20 million shares of the multi-level marketing company that sells nutrition products. 

After he gave a mammoth 342-slide presentation on his Herbalife short thesis in December, Herbalife hosted an analyst day in January to rebut his claims.

"Herbalife management has repeatedly stated its commitment to total transparency, saying that the Company will answer any and all questions about Herbalife, its business model, and its products. In response to this invitation, we have prepared a substantial number of detailed questions, the answers to which should assist the public in understanding Herbalife.  We look forward to the Company’s answers."

We're going through the questions and will be featuring some of our favorites on the site. 

In the meantime, you can view all of Pershing Square's questions here [.PDF] >

ValueWalk's Jacob Wolinsky posted the Questions for Herbalife from Bill Ackman on Scribd: 

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ACKMAN: 'Why Does Herbalife Have ATM Machines In Mexico?'

13 Colleges That Have Produced Some Of The World's Best Hedge Fund Managers

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Paul Tudor Jones

You don't have to graduate from an Ivy League university with a degree in finance or economics to become one of the world's best hedge fund managers.

While a bunch of the top fund managers did just that, not everyone follows that path.   

We've included a roundup of the schools that have produced some of the world's most successful hedge fund managers. Some of them might surprise you. 

Williams College

Undergrad Hedge Fund Alum(s): Tiger Global's Chase Coleman (Spanish/economics)

Location: Williamstown, Massachusetts

National Ranking(s): The private liberal arts college ranked No. 2 in Forbes and No. 1 in U.S. News' liberal arts college rankings. Business Insiderranked the school No. 27.

Fun Fact(s): Coleman, who crushed it during a volatile 2011 and again in 2012, played on the lacrosse team.  His grandfather also went to Williams.  



Middlebury

Hedge Fund Alum(s): Moore Capital's Louis Bacon (American literature)

Location: Middlebury, Vermont

National Ranking(s): The liberal arts school was ranked No. 42 by Forbes, No. 4 in US News' list of liberal arts colleges and No. 42 by Business Insider.

Fun Fact(s): While at Middlebury, Bacon, a now big time conservationist and environmentalist, really developed his love of the great outdoors spending time hunting and skiing as an undergrad.



Stony Brook University

Undergrad Hedge Fund Alum(s): Co-founder of Highbridge Capital/founder of Talpion Fund Management Henry Swieca (economics and French) and co-founder of Highbridge Capital Glenn Dubin (economics)

Location: Stony Brook, New York

National Ranking(s): The school was ranked No. 230 in Forbes and No. 92 in US News' National Universities Rankings.

Fun Fact(s): Dubin, who was the first in his family to go to college, captained the football team as a running back and linebacker.



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The Very Fine Line Between A Real Business And A Pyramid Scheme

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Herbalife

Controversy is again casting a shadow over the multilevel marketing industry, as nutritional supplement company Herbalife Inc., which has thousands of distributors in the Chicago region, has been publicly called a pyramid scheme by a prominent investor -- an allegation the company vigorously denies.

Meanwhile, a different multilevel marketer, Fortune Hi-Tech Marketing, was shut down in recent weeks after a lawsuit was brought by regulators and several states, including Illinois, alleging the company scammed consumers out of $169 million. The scheme affected an estimated 100,000 Americans, including some in Chicago, where it targeted Spanish-speaking consumers, the Federal Trade Commission alleged.

Most people outside the industry might have only a vague notion about multilevel marketing, also called network marketing and direct selling. It often involves personal sales of cosmetics, wellness products or home decor items -- or as critics flippantly call it, "pills, potions and lotions" -- usually sold through product parties hosted by friends or relatives.

For sellers, the companies offer the appeal of starting a business on the cheap with little training, working from home and being their own boss, if only for part-time money. Some might recruit friends and family to become sellers, which augments their own commissions and gives them a shot at the six-figure compensation many such marketing companies tout but few distributors attain.

The largest multilevel marketing companies, often known as MLMs, are household names: Avon, Mary Kay, Pampered Chef and Amway. MLMs have annual sales of about $30 billion, with about 16 million people in the United States selling their products, according to the industry group Direct Selling Association, which represents these firms and others.

The recent controversies might raise the question: What's the difference between a legitimate multilevel marketing company and an illegal pyramid scheme, in which only people who get in first -- at the top of the pyramid-like structure -- make money and everyone else is a dupe?

The harshest critics maintain there is no difference, that there's no such thing as a legitimate MLM and that the industry's secrets stay safe because of a cultlike mentality and a blind eye of regulators.

Jon M. Taylor, who was once a seller for an MLM company, said he has studied the industry for 18 years and analyzed more than 500 MLM companies. He maintains the website MLM-thetruth.com and offers a free e-book there.

"I have not yet found a good MLM -- a good MLM is an oxymoron," Taylor said.

He said all MLM companies have the same flaw: They depend on endless chains of recruiting new members. "There is no more unfair and deceptive practice than multilevel marketing," Taylor said.

Tracy Coenen, a forensic accountant and fraud investigator with Sequence Inc. in Chicago and Milwaukee, is author of the Fraud Files Blog. She is also a critic.

"Multilevel marketing companies are pyramid schemes that the government allows to operate," said Coenen. "The only difference is that Herbalife, or any multilevel marketing company, has a tangible product that they use to make their pyramid appear legitimate."

The Direct Selling Association says MLMs are legitimate businesses, and that the group has about 200 members carefully screened by the organization to ensure they are not pyramid schemes and don't use deceptive practices.

The Federal Trade Commission agrees there are legitimate MLMs. The difference between a legitimate business and pyramid scheme comes down to products.

If the company and its distributors make money primarily from the sale of products to end-users (and not boxes of product accumulating in a distributor's garage), it's OK.

By contrast, a pyramid scheme compensates those at the top of the pyramid with participation fees paid by those recruited at the bottom. It eventually collapses when the scheme can't recruit more people.

But identifying a pyramid scheme can be difficult because MLMs typically have product sales, along with recruitment fees and recruitment incentives.

"It gets cloudy when you have a situation where you have fees being paid for both," said Monica Vaca, assistant director of the FTC's division of marketing practices. "It's very nuanced."

While prosecuting an MLM can seem somewhat of a judgment call, cases have a common factor: deceptive promises about how much money distributors will earn, Vaca said.

In the Fortune Hi-Tech Marketing case filed last month, C. Steven Baker, director of the FTC's Midwest region, said, "These defendants were promising people that if they worked hard they could make lots of money. But it was a rigged game, and the vast majority of people lost money."

Joe Mariano, president of the Direct Selling Association, said MLM companies typically use multilevel compensation as an alternative to traditional advertising. Companies use money they would otherwise spend on ads or shelf space to instead pay distributors.

"Pyramids are bad guys," Mariano said. "Their mere existence confuses the marketplace and makes it more difficult for legitimate direct-selling companies to do business and to be understood."

Key to the association's code of ethics, which members are expected to abide by, is a prohibition on deceptive sales practices, including promises of outsize earnings. Fortune Hi-Tech was not a member of the association, Mariano said.

Indeed, it's often true that the vast majority of distributors don't earn near enough to make MLM selling their primary job. The Direct Selling Association puts median earnings at $2,400 per year, although critics say the vast majority earn nothing.

Still, Mariano is quick to point out: "Somebody who works hard at this has the potential to do very, very well."

Los Angeles-based Herbalife, a 32-year-old seller of weight-loss shakes and wellness products, became news in December when Bill Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, made a $1 billion bet against Herbalife by shorting the stock. He has repeatedly called the company a pyramid scheme and gave a lengthy and public explanation of why.

(Ackman's Dec. 20 presentation is available at factsaboutherbalife.com while Herbalife's Jan. 10 response is available at its website for investors, ir.herbalife.com

In the Chicago area, Herbalife has a huge presence, with more than 16,000 distributors in the metropolitan region, about a quarter of whom are avid sellers or "leaders," according to the company.

In an interview, Herbalife President Des Walsh said the company is not a pyramid scheme because it sells "real products to real people" and doesn't directly pay for recruiting new distributors. He points to the company being in existence for three decades, operating in 88 countries and continuing to grow. "That growth has been based on more customers consuming our products every single day around the world," he said.

He said Ackman is "seeking to disseminate false and misleading information" about Herbalife to lower the stock price and profit from his bet against the company.

Beneath the fray of high-finance skirmishes is Pablo Caicedo, 38, of Chicago, and his story is typical.

He said he started using Herbalife products, lost 35 pounds and felt like he had more energy. He learned he could get a discount on the products he used by becoming an Herbalife distributor, which he did. He began selling to friends as well. After three months, he was making enough money to quit his job as a parking valet, he said. And for 14 years since, he's sold Herbalife products.

He said the negative publicity around MLMs and Herbalife, in particular, doesn't bother him, chalking it up to other people's opinions. "There are always two sides to an issue," Caicedo said, adding that he has been satisfied with Herbalife. Caicedo said he wasn't comfortable disclosing how much money he earns annually from Herbalife sales.

However successful Caicedo is financially with Herbalife, others aren't nearly so.

In fact, 88 percent of Herbalife distributors earned no commissions in 2012, according to company numbers. That excludes potential profits distributors might have earned on sales of products to others, but it also excludes sales expenses distributors incur, figures Herbalife says it doesn't have.

Why do so few make money?

Herbalife says it's because 73 percent of its sales force only join as distributors to get a wholesale discount on products that they use themselves. For those people, paying the $59 or $109 to become Herbalife distributors, depending on the starter kit, is like paying a fee to join a Costco warehouse club to get better prices, Walsh said. The product discount for those distributors is 25 percent.

But even the vast majority of those who are sales "leaders" at Herbalife, the top 20 percent of sellers, don't earn enough to live. Last year, more than half of the 82,464 sales leaders earned $1,000 or less in commissions for the whole year, according to Herbalife.

Walsh said that's because most of them make Herbalife a part-time business, viewing profits as incremental income, perhaps to pay for a family vacation. "It's an additional form of part-time income that really can help significantly impact their lives," he said.

However, like all MLMs, the very top sales people can profit handsomely. Of those who achieved the sales status of "leader," 0.7 percent make six-figure dollar amounts in commissions. And 194 distributors, 0.2 percent of leaders, had average gross payments from Herbalife of $724,030.

Such earnings disparity is common in multilevel marketing.

Often MLMs will suggest the difference in earnings stems from a difference in effort, that some sellers are more serious about the business than others.

However, critics say high earners are part of a deception and contribute to the lottery mindset of sellers.

Herbalife isn't the only company in the news.

On Jan. 28, the suit by the FTC and several state attorneys general shut down Fortune Hi-Tech Marketing, a network marketer whose distributors sold products that included health and beauty goods and those from certain wireless providers.

The company's distributors earned little for selling goods and services and made more signing up additional sales people, regulators allege. Most paid $100 to $300 in annual fees, and some paid additional money to be eligible for sales commissions and recruiting bonuses.

Fortune officials could not be reached for comment.

At a news conference in Lexington, Ky., the FTC's Baker reportedly declined to comment on whether the move against Fortune Hi-Tech means the agency is making a more aggressive push against direct marketers.

gkarp@tribune.com ___

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The Hedge Funder On The Other Side Of The JPMorgan 'London Whale' Gave His 3 Big Trade Ideas Today

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Andrew Feldstein

Andrew Feldstein, the CEO/CIO of $12.5 billion BlueMountain Capital (the hedge fund on the other side of the "London Whale" trade), spoke at the Harbor Investment Conference this afternoon at JPMorgan Chase.

"The unifying theme across everything that we do across all of our vehicles is that we're looking for attractively priced optionality. We're looking for asymmetric return profiles," Feldstein said.

His focus today at the HIC was on the steel industry, which he thinks is a "fragile situation." Many of these companies are priced for stability and that means you can find cheap convexity and cheap optionality," he explained.

Feldstein, who flew through his slide deck, gave these three trade ideas: 

  1. Short JFE Steel via CDS—JFE Steel is Japan's second largest steel producer and 50 percent of its steel production goes into the export market. "It's a fairly leveraged company...It may be the most vulnerable steel producer in Japan to increased Chinese exports as a consequence of leverage and its own reliance on Chinese exports..." he said. 
  2. ShortFortescue—It's the world's fourth largest iron ore miner by annual production capacity based in Australia.  
  3. US Steel long equity vs. short credit—There's a lot of potential for volatility in this company, which is the second largest U.S. integrated steel manufacturer.  

The Harbor Investment Conference is an annual event that brings together some of the industry's top investors to share trade ideas and raise money for the Boys & Girls' Harbor.  Ackman and Mark Axelowitz, managing director from UBS Private Wealth Management, co-host the conference. 

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Behind Closed Doors, Bill Ackman Called A NYC Seaport Developer One Of Wall Street's Best Kept Secrets (HHC)

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Howard Hughes South Street SeaportIn case you were wondering why Howard Hughes Corporation's stock hit a 52-week high of $78.52 today...

The company was talked about at the Harbor Investment Conference at JPMorgan Chase in Midtown Manhattan.

The HIC is an annual event that raises funds for the Boys & Girls Harbor in New York City that's co-chaired by Bill Ackman and Mark Axelowitz.

All trade ideas that were being discussed were embargoed until after the closing bell.

Ackman, who has a big stake in Howard Hughes and is the chairman of its board, called the company that develops planned communities and mixed-use properties one of the "best kept secrets on Wall Street" during his introduction of the CEO. 

Howard Hughes CEO David Weinreb gave a big slide presentation on the company at the charity conference that showed tons of pictures of their plans. Moments after the presentation, the stock hit a 52-week high.    

And for any New Yorkers who might be interested, Weinreb showed some pretty cool plans for the South Street Seaport to be used as a venue for fashion shows and rooftop concerts, etc. You can see the presentation here in the company's 8-K filing with the SEC.

The stock closed up $5.52, or 7.59%, to end at $78.23 a share.

Check out the chart for today: 

HHC chart

Now Watch: Bill Ackman And The Herbalife Stock War

 

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ACKMAN: 'If The FTC Misses Herbalife It's The Equivalent Of The SEC Missing Madoff'

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Bill Ackman

Hedge fund titan Bill Ackman, who has been in the spotlight for his Herbalife short, is answering investor questions live at the Harbor Investment Conference at JPMorgan Chase right now. 

Ackman's $12 billion Pershing Square Capital Management is shorting more than 20 million shares of Herbalife.  Ackman believes the multi-level marketing company that sells nutrition products is a "pyramid scheme" and has a price target of $0.

We're on site and live blogging Pershing Square Capital Management's responses.  Refresh this page for updates.

Before the Q&A, Ackman auctioned off lunches with himself and the others who presented today.  Blue Mountain's Andrew Feldstein lunch brought in $30,000.

Now we're gettng to the Q&A, but first Ackman is going to talk about his Herbalife short.

"We short very few stocks at Pershing Square," he said saying that shorting has certain inherent risks. 

The biggest risk is no company likes for you to have a view that the stock is going to go down, the activist investor said. 

"After 18 months of work and assistance of some of the top law firms in the country we've included that it's a pyramid scheme."

He says Herbalife has hidden behind a product and that it's a company that hurts poor people.  

The biggest risk Pershing Square took is whether or not they could get enough of a spotlight the FTC, the SEC or the Attorneys Generals around the country? "I was quite confident we attracted the world's attention."

"Carl Icahn thank you very much and Dan Loeb thank you as well." 

He said this made it an interesting question... "Am I right?" 

The catalyst was publicity, he said. He says he has his "friends in the business" to thank for that. 

Ackman put 284 questions out to Herbalife last week. 

"Every question we asked a company that's not a pyramid scheme could answer in 20 minutes." 

Now it's time for questions. He says he's willing to answer anything even Herbalife questions. "I'm obsessed with Herbalife," he said. 

  • An update on the Hong Kong Dollar: At the time our view was that it was the most undervalued currency in the world because it was pegged to the U.S. dollar, Ackman says. Because it's been pegged the volatility has been low, he explained. He says the peg no longer makes sense and that he thinks the peg will be lifted, he said. 
  • JCPenney update/ what "plan b" could be?: He says CEO Ron Johnson has done a lot in the 13 or 14 months.  What he had a tougher time with is the decision to completely withdraw promotions, he said.  The consumer base was used to coupons.  So Johnson took the price down to the level where the consumer would want to buy it. "The other major accomplishment is if you go into a JCPenney today it's a completely different experience compared to what it was 18 months ago..." The problem, he said, is once those promotions were taken away is getting the consumer in.  He says the company has responded with the circulars and advertisements by including a reference price. He says he's also bringing sales back at relevant times.  He says the press has been very negative and Ron gets picked on more than any other CEO in the country. He noted that one investing tip is when people take a bearish look on a CEO that's the time to take a look at a company. Another significant thing is by the beginning of May the home section will be a whole "shop." 
  • What if JCP's plan doesn't work?: It's hard for me to imagine a scenario in which sales don't stabilize.  
  • How long do you think it will take for the market to see Herbalife for what it really is? (His famed MBIA short took about 7 years): He said when he went public the first time with his MBIA short he was much less well known and MBIA generated a bunch of profits for some buldge bracket banks. The difference today he said is you have to look at who's being helped and who's being harmed. He says "you don't want to short a stock unless it's good for America for the company to disappear." He says you have a handful of top Herbalife distributors making a lot of money and millions who have lost money as HLF distributors. This is a company that uses the American dream, climb the later to induce lower income people and Hispanics. "If the FTC misses Herbalife, it's the equivalent of the SEC missing Madoff." He says he's quite confident and that this short will happen much more quickly. The other catalyst he says the company files the 10-K in the third week in February. He says KPMG should probably take a "very, very careful" look at that financial statement before they slap their brand on it. 
  • Thoughts on Apple?: "I think it's an credible company. I love the products. We never owned Apple." 
  • Thoughts on Burger King: He says if you try the new chicken sandwich "it's unbelievable" and there's probably no horse meat in it he joked.

The Harbor Investment Conference is an annual event that brings together some of the industry's top investors to share trade ideas and raise money for the Boys & Girls' Harbor.  Ackman and Mark Axelowitz, managing director from UBS Private Wealth Management, co-host the conference.

 

 

Produced by Daniel Goodman 

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In Buying Heinz, Warren Buffett Went Into Business With The Richest Man In Brazil

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Jorge Lemann

Everyone's talking about the massive deal Warren Buffett did buying Heinz ketchup for $28 billion in cash, $72.50 a share.

Thing is, Buffett's not doing this alone. Berkshire Hathaway will own 50% of Heinz, and another company, 3G Investments will own the the rest.

3G, a buy-out firm, is owned by the richest man in Brazil (and the 37th richest man in the world), Jorge Lemann, and in the last few years Lemann has done some big deals with big names.

In 2008 Lemann bought a 10% stake in Anheuser-Busch InBev. with his two billionaire partners in 3G, Carlos Alberto Sicupira and Marcel Herrmann Telles. That's when the world really started paying attention to this former Brazilian national tennis star's aggressive management style. He seriously cut costs and employee perks like free beer.

In 2010 he did another big deal with an American company. Using 3G Capital, his American investment firm, Lemann, his partners, and fellow Brazilian billionaire Eike Batista, managed a leveraged buy-out of Burger King (you can thank Lemann for getting rid of that creepy Burger King king, he fired the ad firm that came up with it).

It was a hugely successful acquisition and in 2 years they sold 29% of the company to hedge fund manager Bill Ackman's UK investment vehicle, Justice Holdings.

It was Justice that took Burger King public again last year (from FT):

“When I learnt that Burger King was interested in a possible transaction with Justice, I brought the opportunity to my Justice founding partners to consider,” Mr Ackman said. “They liked what I saw, a 58-year-old global brand, and a simple, predictable, free cash flow growth franchise in the process of transformation into a pure brand royalty business.”

Lemann became the richest man in Brazil when he overtook Eike Batista last year.

SEE ALSO:  The Fabulous Life Of Eike Batista—The Brazilian Who Is Risking It All To Become Richest Man In The World

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Whitney Tilson Is Looking Like A Mini-Bill Ackman

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whitney tilson

Hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson, who is now managing the Kase Fund after going separate ways from his partner Glenn Tongue, has filed T2 Partners 13F for the fourth quarter with the SEC.  

The fund's latest moves remind us of Bill Ackman, the founder of $12 billion Pershing Square Capital Management.  Ackman and Tilson are known to be friends. 

Anyway, according to the filing, T2 disclosed brand new stakes in Burger King Worldwide and JCPenney, both Ackman favorites. (HT: ValueWalk's Jacob Wolinksy)

The filing shows that T2 owned 25,983 shares of Burger King and 44,899 shares in JCPenney during the fourth quarter. 

The filing also shows that he bought 67,200 shares of MBIA (the stock that Ackman famously shorted years ago) and 9,800 Herbalife calls. Last month, Tilson said that he's shorting a "tiny smidge" of Herbalife, the company that Ackman believes is a "pyramid scheme" and has a price target of $0.

Speaking of 13-F filings that are coming out, Tilson said in an interview on CNBC's "Fast Money: Halftime Report" moments ago that he follows some of the smart guys and looks for great ideas that way. 

Well it's probably safe to say one of those guys is Ackman. 

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Carl Icahn Reports HUGE Stake In Herbalife

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Carl Icahn

Billionaire investor Carl Icahn has disclosed a massive stake in Herbalife equal to 12.98%, 14,015,151 shares, according to an SEC filing.

"The Reporting Persons intend to have discussions with management of the Issuer regarding the business and strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value, such as a recapitalization or a going-private transaction," the filing states.

Icahn told CNBC's Scott Wapner that he's done a great deal of research on the company and he doesn't think that it's a pyramid scheme. 

Herbalife is the stock that Icahn's decade-long rival Bill Ackman, the CEO of $12 billion Pershing Square Capital Management, is shorting.  Ackman, who is shorting more than 20 million shares, believes that the company is a "pyramid scheme" and has a price target of $0.

Just last month, the two hedge fund titans, who have been fighting for a decade, duked it out on CNBC in a live telephone interview with Icahn hurling brutal insults at Ackman.  

The stock is soaring on the Icahn news.  Herbalife is up 18.11%, or $45.20 per share, in after-hours trading. That's above the pre-Ackman short level. 

Watch Below: How Herbalife Became The Apple Of Discord For Carl Icahn And Bill Ackman

 

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HERBALIFE SHARES EXPLODE HIGHER (HLF)

BILL ACKMAN: We Welcome Carl Icahn's Herbalife Investment (HLF)

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Bill Ackman

Yesterday, billionaire investor Carl Icahn reported a massive 12.98 percent stake in Herbalife that is sending shares surging right now.

This puts pressure on hedge fund giant Bill Ackman, who has built up a massive short position against the stock.  Central to Ackman's investment thesis is his belief that Herbalife is a pyramid scheme.

This morning, CNBC's Scott Wapner reports Ackman's first response to Icahn's recently disclosed position.

According to Wapner, Ackman continues to believe with certainty that Herbalife is a pyramid scheme.  He also says his conclusion is unaffected by who is on the other side of his short position.

Regarding Icahn's investment, Ackman says he welcomes it if it helps shine a a light on Herbalife.

Last month, Ackman and Icahn engaged in a war of words riddled with accusations and profanities live on CNBC.

Carl Icahn is schedule to be on CNBC at 12:00 PM ET today.

SEE ALSO: The 22 Most Controversial Stocks In America >

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Herbalife Is Surging After Icahn's Investment Announcement (HLF)

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Shares of Herbalife opened higher this morning after billionaire investor Carl Icahn revealed a huge stake in Herbalife yesterday evening equal to 12.98%, or 14,015,151 shares.

Herbalife is the stock that Icahn's decade-long rival Bill Ackman, the CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, is shorting.  Ackman, who believes the company is a pyramid scheme, is shorting 20 million shares of Herbalife with a price target of $0. 

The two hedge fund titans recently brawled in a telephone interview live on CNBC with Icahn hurling zingers a Ackman calling him a "crybaby in the schoolyard." 

Ackman responded this morning that he welcomes Icahn's investment in Herbalife and he continues to believe the company is a pyramid scheme. 

The stock is now trading above the pre-Ackman short level. It was last trading up $ 6.02, or 15.73%, at $44.29 per share.

Check out the five-day chart: 

hlf stock chart

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The Ackman-Icahn Feud Explained In A Massive Flowchart

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Billionaire investor Carl Ichan and hedge fund heavyweight Bill Ackman, the founder of Pershing Square Capital, have been fighting for ten years now. 

Their decade-long feud became legendary when the pair of hedge fund titans duked it out during a live telephone interview on CNBC.  Icahn was hurling insults at Ackman calling him a "crybaby in the schoolyard," while Ackman called Icahn a "bully."

Yesterday, Icahn came back at Ackman again when he revealed an Herbalife stake equal to 12.98 percent, or 14,015,151 shares. Herbalife is the same stock that Ackman is shorting because he thinks it's a pyramid scheme.  He's short more than 20 million shares and has a price target of $0.

Hilary Sargent, more popularly known as Chart Girl, created this handy flowchart that will tell you everything you need to know about this hedgefeud:

hedgefeud Carl Ichan Bill Ackman

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Meet The Richest Man In Brazil—Who Just Partnered With Warren Buffett To Buy Heinz

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Jorge Paulo Lemann Burger King

Yesterday Berkshire Hathaway disclosed that it would buy Heinz in a $28 billion deal, but they're not doing it alone.

For a buy this big, Buffett enlisted the help of Brazil's most famous banker and arguably fiercest dealmaker, Jorge Lemann.

Over the course of his life, Lemann has gone from journalist to national tennis champion to banker and now billionaire investor.

Last year, he overtook Eike Batista to become Brazil's richest man. In terms of their business style, however, Lemann and Batista have little in common. Where Batista is a flashy playboy who's vowed to become to the richest man in the world, Lemann is a silent killer. He's known for a strict management style, and he doesn't seem to be in the game for the money (from Bloomberg):

“Money is simply a way of measuring if the business is going well or not, but money in and of itself doesn’t fascinate me,” Lemann said in January 2008, according to an interview published in HSM Management magazine. He declined to comment for this story.

That says a lot.

Lemann was born in Rio in 1939.

His father was a Swiss businessman who immigrated to the country in the 1920s.



He left Brazil for Harvard, and earned his bachelors degree in economics in 1961.

Lemann still has a great relationship with Harvard helping Brazilian students study there and setting up scholarships:

Lemann has generously supported cross-cultural initiatives at Harvard University, including the Brazil Studies Program and Brazil Office of the David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies (DRCLAS), for over a decade. He established the Lemann Visiting Scholars program and, more recently, the Lemann Fellows program at the Harvard Graduate School of Education, the Harvard School of Public Health, the Harvard Kennedy School and the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. He has actively engaged with the 38 students who comprise the first five cohorts of Lemann Fellows, as well as with students he has supported at Harvard College, Harvard Business School and elsewhere at the University.



After Harvard, Lemann's life was a mixed bag. He trained at Credit Suisse for a while and worked as a journalist.

Lemann worked as a business columnist for Jornal do Brasil. It's the 3rd oldest Brazilian paper in existence.



See the rest of the story at Business Insider

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